Most holiday media plans are built around Black Friday. Most holiday shoppers aren’t.

A CNET survey conducted by YouGov in early September found that 59% of U.S. adults had started holiday shopping, or planned to start, by the end of November. That includes 32% who started or planned to start before November began. Only 12% planned to start in December. Early starters outnumber December starters nearly five to one. Yet December is where many brands put their biggest push.

Why this is a media planning problem

A brand that launches the week of Black Friday shows up after most lists are already built. It’s also buying at the most expensive point of the year, when inventory tightens and every retailer is competing for the same audience. Late entrants pay more to reach shoppers who have already narrowed their options.

Starting earlier fixes both problems. October and early-November inventory is typically easier to get and more efficient, and it reaches shoppers while they’re still deciding which brands make the list. It also gives you something a Black Friday launch can’t: weeks of response data before the highest-stakes days of the season.

How we plan it at Media Manager

We build holiday plans around when shoppers start looking, not around a date on the calendar. Every phase is measured by response.
  • Get on the list (October to early November). TV, streaming/CTV and audio build awareness while shoppers are still deciding what to consider. You don’t have to discount early to do this. Brand and product messaging at regular prices works here. We track response from day one, so we know which networks, dayparts and creatives are driving action before the stakes go up. Channels with longer lead times, like direct mail, get booked now so they arrive on time.

  • Convert (Black Friday through Cyber Week). Promotional weight reaches an audience that already knows the brand, and it runs behind the placements that have already proven they work.

  • Close (December). Reminders focus on availability, shipping cutoffs and gift-ready options, and they run through the final weekends when late buyers are still active.

The brands that win the holidays aren’t the ones spending the most in December. They’re the ones that were already on the list, with the data to know what was working.